We are thrilled to announce that Salmocast has achieved 87.5% directional accuracy across all weekly forecasts in Q1 2026. This milestone represents a significant validation of our approach to combining biological data, market signals, and macroeconomic indicators for salmon price prediction.
What This Means
Directional accuracy measures whether our model correctly predicted if the SISALMONI index would move up or down compared to the previous week. An 87.5% accuracy rate means that out of every 8 weekly forecasts, approximately 7 correctly predicted the direction of price movement.
For traders, procurement managers, and aquaculture producers, knowing the direction of price movement is often more valuable than predicting the exact price point. It informs decisions about when to buy, when to sell, and when to hold inventory.
Q1 2026 Performance Highlights
- Direction Accuracy: 87.5%
- Average Error: 3.2%
- Hit Rate (within 5% of actual): 75%
- Verified Forecasts: 12 weeks
The Technology Behind the Results
Our forecasting model integrates over 48 price-driving signals across multiple categories:
- Biological signals: Sea lice levels, sea temperatures, biomass standing stock, and mortality rates across all 13 Norwegian production zones
- Supply indicators: Harvest volumes, smolt releases, and company guidance from major producers
- Demand signals: EU import volumes, global trade flows, and destination market trends
- Macroeconomic factors: EUR/NOK exchange rates, feed costs, and energy prices
- Market sentiment: News sentiment analysis and forward curve dynamics
Transparency Through SHAP Analysis
Unlike black-box models, every Salmocast forecast comes with SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis that shows exactly which factors drove the prediction and by how much. This explainability is crucial for professional traders who need to understand and justify their positions.
In Q1 2026, the most influential factors were supply pressure from Norwegian production zones, EUR/NOK currency movements, and Chilean harvest data affecting global supply dynamics.
We are grateful to our early users who have trusted Salmocast with their market intelligence needs. Your feedback continues to shape our product development.
View our complete forecast history and methodology on our Track Record page.