The SISALMONI index for Week 14 2026 has been published at 87.49 NOK/kg. Our model forecast, updated after the Tuesday retrain on March 31, predicted 88.50 NOK/kg — an error of just 1.01 NOK, or 1.1%. Direction was correct: we predicted a decline from the W13 base of 91.43, and the market delivered.
The Numbers
| Previous Week (W13) Actual | 91.43 NOK/kg |
| Our W14 Forecast (post-retrain) | 88.50 NOK/kg |
| W14 Actual Price | 87.49 NOK/kg |
| Forecast Error | -1.01 NOK (1.1%) |
| Direction | Correct |
How the Retrain Improved Accuracy
On March 25, our model initially projected W14 at 97.50 NOK/kg based on available data at that time. When the W13 actual of 91.43 was published on Tuesday March 31, our pipeline automatically retrained the model with the new data point. The retrained model revised its W14 estimate to 88.50 — the nowcast that was live on the platform before W14 published.
This 9 NOK improvement in accuracy demonstrates the value of our automated Tuesday retrain pipeline. By incorporating the latest market data, the model adapts to recent momentum shifts that earlier forecasts cannot account for.
Running Track Record
With W14 verified, our track record now stands at three confirmed weeks with 100% directional accuracy and an average MAPE of 2.7%. Every verified week has correctly predicted whether prices would rise or fall.
Track Record Summary (as of W14)
- Verified Weeks: 3 (W11, W13, W14)
- Direction Accuracy: 3/3 (100%)
- Average MAPE: 2.7%
- Best Week: W14 at 1.1% error
View the full, live track record on our Track Record page. Every number is pulled directly from our database — no manual editing, no cherry-picking.